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As a sign of the importance that it attaches to academic studies, the CBRT posts working papers and research notes in economics prepared by the CBRT staff on the CBRT website. The peer-reviewed CBRT Working Papers series written by the CBRT staff increased by three. Moreover, with a view to making a timely contribution to discussions on economic developments and sharing the results of the studies on the Turkish economy and monetary policy, four Research Notes in Economics were issued.
Within the scope of the Financial Support Program for Academic Studies, 16 different conference support applications were made, eight of which were supported following evaluation. In addition, the peer-reviewed journal “Central Bank Review”, which prioritizes studies on macroeconomics, monetary economics, finance and capital markets, banking and financial intermediation, macro and micro prudential regulations, international economy and finance, was published four times in 2022. Applications for 133 articles were made to this journal, 12 of which were accepted and published in 2022.
On the other hand, articles contributed by CBRT employees were published in journals listed in the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI).
In 2022, the CBRT continued to conduct analyses towards determining the structural developments in the Turkish economy, particularly structural factors limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy, carried out research and monitoring activities in the form of on-site observation of the effects of monetary policy on real sector activities, and produced policy recommendations in the framework of inter-institutional cooperation. These research and field observations were supported by new data, and the results of the study were shared with relevant parties.
Activities carried out regarding structural economic developments in 2022 can be grouped into four headings: (1) Research activities on the interaction of structural factors of the Turkish economy with the monetary policy, (2) Providing information on food and agricultural product prices and presenting research on pricing behavior on the platforms of the Food and Agricultural Product Markets Monitoring and Evaluation Committee (Food Committee) and the Price Stability Committee, (3) Coordination activities for research studies, (4) Activities in the scope of the Real Activity Lens (REAL).
In order to examine the structural developments in the Turkish economy and their interaction with monetary policy, various topics have been examined such as pricing behavior, market structure and competition, foreign trade, current account balance and firm dynamics, labor markets, productivity and household behavior by employing empirical and theoretical methods. The findings were regularly presented to policy makers during MPC processes and at Committee meetings held with stakeholders.
The Food Committee focused on solving structural and cyclical problems in the agriculture and food sectors in pursuit of sustainable price stability. Food Committee decisions are taken based on cooperation between institutions, and thanks to the representation of relevant institutions at the highest level, a solution-oriented cooperation has been developed and concrete policy measures have been introduced. In this context, four Food Committee meetings were held in 2022.
Within the scope of the Food-EWS project carried out by the CBRT as per the Food Committee decisions, the data on food and agricultural product prices, which are critical for price stability, were analyzed and measures were proposed in detail and in a timely manner. The up-to-date database in this area is used to monitor structural problems and critical developments in food and agricultural product markets, and regular briefings and reports on the latest developments in the sector are presented at the Committee meetings. On the other hand, the Dynamic Foreign Trade Monitoring System presentation prepared according to the Food-EWS is shared with relevant ministries and organizations on a monthly basis, and the Inflation Developments in Critical Food Products Report is shared with them on a weekly basis.
In 2022, the CBRT continued to incorporate real sector developments as a high-quality and timely source of information into its decision-making processes. In this regard, meetings were organized bringing together the CBRT and senior executives of firms and NGOs to serve as a platform to gather comprehensive information about the economic activity, and real sector sentiment has been monitored in a timely manner.
In addition to the regular field meetings held to follow cyclical developments, thematic studies were carried out on the developments in the areas of interest of the MPC or on the issues specific to the period, and reports were prepared. Accordingly, a total of 3,767 interviews were conducted in 2022. These interviews involved 2,627 firms and 25 non-governmental organizations within the scope of cyclical studies, 827 firms within the scope of monitoring investment demand and outlook, and 288 producers, unions, associations and organizations within the scope of agricultural negotiations.
Information gathered in monthly meetings allowed a healthier evaluation of cyclical developments in economic activity (such as production, domestic and foreign sales, investment, employment, financing conditions, costs and prices). These visits aimed to exchange views on the effects of monetary policy practices on the real sector, and thus contribute to the CBRT’s communication policy. In Inflation Reports published in 2022, boxes titled “Findings Obtained from Firm Interviews” were published and findings obtained from cyclical interviews were shared with the public.
In addition, training programs were completed in 2022 ensuring operability of real sector and communication functions in branches other than Ankara and Istanbul branches. With the completion of the training, 18 branches and employees learned how to carry out real sector activities on a regular basis.
To monitor policy decisions more effectively, FX-protected deposits and export sales information were added to high-frequency data, and they were regularly monitored and analyzed. To monitor the effective allocation of rediscount resources, an integrated database was established in a big data environment and used in operational processes. Within the scope of the CBRT’s policy needs, the Big Data Platform was enriched with new data and its functionality was enhanced. High-frequency domestic and international transfer data were incorporated into the analysis processes.
To facilitate the access of economists, researchers and specialists to the data sets available at the CBRT, a Data Inventory System was established, which includes the imprint information of these data sets.
As part of efforts to improve the Balance of Payments Statistics, the following revisions were made along with the publication of the September Balance of Payments Statistics:
1) Following the collaboration with TURKSTAT and relevant stakeholder institutions on tourism statistics compiled through the Departing Visitor Survey (DEBS)
Following the revision in tourism statistics, the “Balance of Services/Travel/Revenue” item under the Current Account was revised starting from January 2012 data.
2) While the “Primary Income Balance/Wage Payments/Expenses” item was estimated using the number of employees and average wages of foreigners with granted work permits in Türkiye by the Turkish Ministry of Labor and Social Security before the revision, as part of efforts to improve data quality and integrate new data sources into the data compilation process, the number and wage data on foreign insured persons were obtained from the Social Security Institution (SSI) on the basis of nationality and NACE sectors in which they are employed and recalculated. Accordingly, this item was updated starting from the data for January 2017.
A number of research and development studies have been carried out to improve the banknote printing process.
Signatures on E9 Emission Group, Series V and Series VI banknotes have been changed (50 and 100 Turkish Lira banknotes of Series V and 5 and 10 Turkish Lira banknotes of Series VI).
Between 17-20 October 2022, the Banknote Printing Plant underwent an integrated audit by the Turkish Standards Institution to verify compliance of the Banknote Printing Plant’s Quality Management System with the ISO 9001 Quality Standards, Occupational Health and Safety Management System with ISO 45001 standards, and Environmental Management System with ISO 14001 system. As a result of the audit, the Banknote Printing Plant’s ISO 9001 Quality and ISO 45001 Occupational Health and Safety Management System documents and ISO 14001 Environmental Management System document were certified as remaining valid.
In the field of Information Technologies (IT), establishment of technological solutions and systems in line with the Bank’s objectives continued in addition to efforts to ensure the security and continuity of these systems. Below are the most significant of many improvements carried out throughout the year:
Practices concerning the CBRT’s Liraization Strategy actions were introduced. Accordingly, FX-protected Deposits (KKM), Deposit and Participation Scheme for Non-Resident Turkish Citizens (YUVAM), FX-Protected Deposit Account Converted from Physical Gold (FATSI), and Required Reserves projects were completed.
The CBRT’s technology and application architecture was further transformed to respond more quickly to the CBRT’s needs, to keep continuity high by increasing technical platform alternatives and to monitor the services offered end-to-end.
Efforts were made to establish the IT infrastructure of the CBRT’s Istanbul Financial Center campus.
Studies were carried out to ramp up our cybersecurity resilience and our data security measures were enhanced. In addition, our cyber security monitoring infrastructure acquired new capabilities.
New opportunities were offered to participants to facilitate the technical certification required to be included in the FAST system.
Data governance projects for more effective use of data in decision-making processes continued.
Human resources applications were renewed and processes were digitalized further.
To increase the CBRT’s business continuity, the CBRT launched infrastructure improvements to enable IT systems and applications to operate in different data centers in addition to the existing data centers, and initial tests were successfully completed to this end.
Efforts were made towards compliance with the Information and Communication Security Guidelines published by the Digital Transformation Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye and audits were performed. As a result of audits conducted by an authorized and independent organization, the CBRT’s ISO 27001 Information Security Management System certificate was renewed.
Our business intelligence infrastructure setup was improved.
Our in-house communication platform was renewed to foster communication.
The Centralized Access Control and Management System (API Gateway) was launched to enhance the security of our applications serving outside the CBRT and to manage them more efficiently and easily.
IT support services were improved to provide the CBRT employees with faster and higher quality services.
Regarding the Central Bank Digital Turkish Lira Research and Development Project, the project working environment was prepared by determining the requirements for the scenarios for use and architecture of the Digital Turkish Lira, related systems and applications were developed, and simulations and tests were performed. In addition, system performance and user experience were measured through pilot tests, and the first phase of the project continued with analysis studies.
At the CBRT, performance trials were conducted for various strategic advanced technologies and they were compared with existing instant payment system technologies. Alternative setups for the integration of the Digital Turkish Lira and FAST systems were evaluated. Integration applications were developed for the uses identified in the first phase and the tests were completed successfully.
Within the scope of the first phase of the Central Bank Digital Turkish Lira Project, Digital Identity and Digital Turkish Lira systems were integrated. Digital identities were generated for system operators and test participant users in the Digital Turkish Lira System to be employed in financial transactions. Pilot test users were able to pass different levels of identity verification through digital wallets, store their documents and use them in financial transactions.
Regarding the efforts towards the legal aspects of the digital Turkish lira, the criticality of digital identification for the project was identified and it was decided to prioritize studies in this area.
Research, development and testing activities were performed on interoperability of different networks and technologies, wholesale payments system on a distributed ledger platform, applications that safeguard data privacy, high-performance architecture designs, comparison of programmable payment methods and innovative usage areas.
Talks with other central banks continued to identify international cooperation opportunities in the field of digital currency.
So as to process and analyze ever-growing and expanding data sources faster, produce results more quickly, and enhance the CBRT’s institutional analysis capacity, integration of the GPU server was completed and its effectiveness was tested with existing machine-learning models.
In-house Python and data analysis training was provided to contribute to employees in improving their analytical capacity.
